$25/$50 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • Merge
Villain is stealing 14% over 45 hands so I have NO idea why I was 3b'ing him here.
Having said that, villain has called 0% (0 for 3) cbets and this flop misses his PF range (tons of Ax, 66+, so I think the cbet here is good, and my sizing lines up a turn on a turn broadway.
I would expect villain is calling with almost all of that range, say:
66+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo (12.22% of all hands).
Ace hits the turn, I figure a double barrel here is 50/50, getting folds from 66-QQ, and with the pot being what it is, I think I need 33% FE to make it profitable, and obviously I have like zero showdown value.
If I shove, I assume villain calls with top pair or better, which is 4.52% of all hands, meaning they're folding 7.7% of all hands, so 63% FE, more than enough to make the shove +EV (assuming villain is never calling with worse than TP).
| BTN | $1,640 | 33bb | |
| Hero | $1,285 | 26bb | |
Pre-Flop ($75, 2 players)
Hero is BB
BTN raises to $100, Hero raises to $233, BTN calls $133
- Flop ($541, 2 players)
Hero bets $233, BTN calls $233
- Turn ($1,007, 2 players)
Hero ($819)?
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